Here's our promise to deliver on our advertisement:
"Drumroll...sometimes we feel that victory is near, when it's farther away than we first thought..will Andrew suffer the same fate as Portia did in the 2007 elections?
Or will Portia get her last chance to be PM?
Will an independent do better than expected?
We'll do some foresighting (http://bit.ly/sRtCaT) on www.GirlWithaPurpose.com this week! :)"
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According to CORDIS, foresighting is the art and science of identifying possible futures, imagining desirable futures, and defining strategies. Results are generally fed into public decision-making (for example, which research priorities deserve public funding), but they also help participants themselves to develop or adjust their strategy.
Foresighting is usually done with a 10-25 year outlook.
Jamaica faces an upcoming General Election, constitutionally held every five (5) years.
But the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has come under increasing scrutiny and pressure stemming from their failure to timely accede to US government requests to extradite Tivoli strongman Christopher Dudus Coke in April 2010.
Pressure that led to a public enquiry re the matter - The Manatt Coke Commission of Enquiry and the premature departure of then-PM and JLP Party Leader Bruce Golding (in just the 4th year of his term in office).
He has been replaced by a younger leader - Andrew Holness (for polls showed that this is what most Jamaicans wanted - a younger person in their generational age-grouping, who could identify with them and clean up the corruption at the political and public sector levels in the country).
Prime Minister (PM) Holness has promised to continue Mr. Golding's policies of job provision, constriction of debt by adhering to IMF monetary and fiscal policies, moral and ethical accountability and constitutional change to facilitate this.
From Andrew Holness took the position of PM, it was expected that a General Election would have been called.
He said so himself, as he wanted to get his own mandate going forward.
Maybe the media preceded him, but every time he was expected to announce the General Election, we heard that the announcement had been postponed.
This is also in light of the revelation from a recent Don Anderson poll that showed the PNP ahead of the JLP by 4.6% (with a +/- 4% margin of error. Don Anderson is a renown Jamaican pollster).
The PM has promised elections after Christmas this year and is expected to announce the date on Sunday, December 4.
Well, we at Girl With a Purpose (GWAP) Blog have done some foresighting based on trends in the global economy, Jamaican geopolitical trends and what we see happening on-the-ground.
As such, we have come up with this possible, but very probable outcome for this General Election:
A People's National Party (PNP) win.
We predict that the PNP will win the next General Elections.
No matter if Andrew Holness calls the elections this year or waits until next year, when it's constitutionally due, the PNP will win.
Unfortunately for the JLP, they have not been able to fulfil the promise of "jobs, jobs, jobs" that propelled them into office in 2007.
With a global economic recession, financial instability in the global markets, Jamaican unemployment up to 16.4% and the middle class still reeling from the failure of failed investment schemes Cash Plus and Olint, the middle classes have been left scrambling to eke out monies just to survive, while the working class and the poor continue their hand-to-mouth existence and dependence on remittances.
The PNP's promise of immediate jobs will override the JLP's promise of jobs over the next 2-5 years; the announcement that there will be a loss of 30,000 public sector jobs will drive the working class and poor (the majority of Jamaicans), to vote PNP:
As, feeding yourself for the day is much more immediate and important to the hungry, than finding a job over a 2-3 year time span.
The poor and working class would rather have temporary, low-skill, crash program jobs, now, than starve in an effort to fulfill promised jobs in the future.
The recent Jamaica Development Infrastructure Program (JDIP) controversy and a surprise announcement just days before election, will further erode the JLP's chances of success at the polls, as the undecided will remain just so - undecided and determined not to vote.
Jamaicans' penchant of believing election promises of opposing parties, just when the economy is about to stabilize, will put the PNP back in office in the 2011/2012 elections.
However an Independent Party - The Marcus Garvey People's Political Party will give an incumbent (an existing Member of Parliament), quite a scare, although the MP will win with a margin of less than 100 votes.
There will be a narrow margin of victory for the PNP by less than 1,585 votes.
This is despite their efforts to mobilise the die-hards in the Party. (Those who will vote PNP, no matter what).
However, within three (3) years of the PNP regaining power in Jamaica...the Jamaican economy will officially crash.
The PNP's failure to release non-performing public sector workers from their jobs and to stick within the parameters of International Monetary Fund (IMF) program, will result in the IMF severely restricting the funds it can release to the Jamaican economy.
This will result in the government seeking higher-interest rate loans on the open market.
Higher because:
1) Jamaica's failure to stick within IMF program parameters will severely degrade Jamaica's international credit rating
2) Loans that would have come to Jamaica will have to be redirected to struggling European Union (EU) economies to prevent the EU from falling apart.
The business sector which pushed for IMF reforms to continue, despite strict measures, will be further frustrated by the Jamaican government's refusal to stick to these terms.
In an effort to provide low-paying, crash program jobs, businesses will be taxed more and government coffers will be further stretched to finance these jobs.
Some business will be forced to exit the country to survive.
This exit will further frustrate the Jamaican economy in 2013/14....
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Now this is just a synopsis of what we foresee will happen.
This is one possible, but very probable outcome, based on current and future trends in the global and Jamaican economies and trends in the Jamaican political arena over the past 25-30 years...
So, just to reiterate our answer to the question - who will be the Jamaica's next Prime Minister?
The answer: Portia Simpson-Miller.
But because of events foreseen after her ascension to the PM post and her age in 2013/2014 - 69 years old, she will never be elected again.
Gillian
Sources Include
1) Foresighting definition, via, accessed via European Commission's Community Research and Development Information Service (CORDIS), accessed December 2,2011
2) Table, "Main Labour Force Indicators 2010-2011", Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), accessed December 2,2011
